浙江风采网

1楼市崩盘论、拐点论、调整论,孰是孰非?

新闻来源:    | 发布日期时间:2014年06月24日 10:54


ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”


ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”


浙江风采网ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”

    JINNIANZHONGGUOLOUSHIYOUDIANLENG,BUJINSHANGPINFANGCHENGJIAOLIANGCHIXUZOUDI,FANGJIAHUANBIXIADIEDECHENGSHIYEYUELAIYUEDUO。ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEZOUSHICHENGWEIGEFANGGUANZHUDEJIAODIAN,YOURENJINGHU“GUAIDIAN”CHUXIAN,YOURENRENWEIZHEISHIZHENGCHANGDEDIAOZHENG,YEYOURENJIANXINFANGJIAHAIHUIZHANG。

浙江风采网  ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”

浙江风采网  GUOJIATONGJIJUJINRIGONGBUDE《2014NIAN5YUEFEN70GEDAZHONGCHENGSHIZHUZHAIXIAOSHOUJIAGEBIANDONGQINGKUANG》XIANSHI,JINNIAN5YUEFEN,FANGJIAHUANBISHANGZHANGDECHENGSHIMINGXIANJIANSHAO,BUFENCHENGSHIFANGJIAHUANBIXIAOFUXIAJIANG。XINJIANSHANGPINZHUZHAI(BUHANBAOZHANGXINGZHUFANG)YUSHANGYUEXIANGBI,70GEDAZHONGCHENGSHIZHONG,JIAGEXIAJIANGDECHENGSHIYOU35GE(ZHENGTIPINGJUNJIANGFUWEI0.15%,WEIJIN24GEYUEYILAIDEXINDI,YESHICIQIJIANSHOUCICHUXIANFUZENGZHANG),CHIPINGDECHENGSHIYOU20GE,SHANGZHANGDECHENGSHIYOU15GE;ERSHOUZHUZHAIJIAGEYUSHANGYUEXIANGBI,70GEDAZHONGCHENGSHIZHONG,JIAGEXIAJIANGDECHENGSHIYOU35GE,CHIPINGDECHENGSHIYOU16GE,SHANGZHANGDECHENGSHIYOU19GE。

浙江风采网  ZAIFANGJIAXIANGLAIJIANTINGDESIGEYIXIANCHENGSHIZHONG,SHANGHAI、SHENZHENDEXINFANGJIAGEYECHUXIANHUANBIXIADIE,GUANGZHOUCHIPING,ZHIYOUBEIJINGWEIZHANG0.2%。JUTONGJI,5YUE1RIZHI3RI,BEIJINGSHANGPINZHUZHAIGONGCHENGJIAOTONGBIZHOUJIANG78.9%,BINGCHUANGXIAZI2008NIANSHIXING“WUYI”XIAOZHANGJIAYILAIDEZUIDIZHI。SHENZHENTONGQISHANGPINFANGCHENGJIAOTONGBIDIEFUCHAOGUOLIUCHENG。

浙江风采网  ZHONGXINWANGCHENG,5 YUEFENSHICHANGCHENGJIAOBINGMEIYOUYULIAOZHONGDEDAFUFANDAN,FANGQIPAOLIANGDEXIWANGLUOKONG,KUCUNMIANLIN“YALISHANDA”DEJIONGJING。

浙江风采网  ZHUANJIA:LOUSHIJINRUXINYILUNDIAOZHENGQI

  《ZHONGGUOZHENGQUANBAO》CHENG,ZAIBINGWUZHENGCEMINGXIANYAZHIDEBEIJINGXIA,LOUSHIZAICHUANTONGREXIAOQIQUECHUXIAN“LIANGJIAQIDIE”DEJUMIAN,YINCIHENDUOSHICHANGRENSHIJIANGCIPANDUANWEI“GUAIDIAN”,RENWEIZAIDANGQIANSHICHANGZHENGTIGONGXUPINGHENGDEQINGKUANGXIA,JIAOYILIANGDEDIBUKENENGWEICHIJIAOZHANGSHIJIAN,FANGJIADEDIAOZHENGZHOUQIYEJIANGLAZHANG。

  BEIJINGDAXUEFANGDICHANYANJIUSUOSUOZHANGCHENGUOQIANGZAIJIESHOUZHONGXINWANGJIZHECAIFANGSHIBIAOSHI,2014NIAN1-5YUEFENSHUJUJIZHONGCHENGXIAN“LIANGJIAQIDIE”TAISHI,ZHEIJIANGJINYIBUJIAJUSHICHANGXIATANYUQI,DUANQINEILOUSHIZHEIZHONGJIXUXIACHENDETAISHIBUHUIZHUANBIAN。BENCIFANGDICHANSHICHANGHANLIUSHIYOUYUSHICHANGZISHENMAODUNBAOFA,BAOKUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGZISHENDEGONGYINGMAODUN、SHICHANGNEIBUJIEGOUXINGWENTI,HUOZHESHIYOUYUGUOQUYIDUANSHIJIANFANGJIASHANGZHANGGUOMENGGUOKUAIDENG。

  ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANXIEHUIMISHUZHANGGUYUNCHANGFENXICHENG,FANGDICHAN“LIANGJIAQIDIE”YOUSANGEYUANYIN:DIYI,FANGDICHANSHICHANGBENSHENCHUZAIXIAXINGQUJIAN,FANGDICHANSHICHANGHEHONGGUANJINGJIYIYANGZENGSUFANGHUAN。DIER,HEQUNIANFANGDICHANDEKUAISUZENGZHANGJISHUGAOYOUHENDAGUANXI,QUNIANXIAOSHOUMIANJI、XIAOSHOUETONGBIZENGZHANGHENKUAI,QUNIANTOUZHIDEXIAOSHOUDAOZHIJISHUZENGJIA,ZHEIZAIHENDACHENGDUYINGXIANGJINNIANDESHICHANGBIAOXIAN。DISAN,FANGDAIZHENGCERIYISHOUJIN,GUOQUHUOBIZHENGCEYIZHIBIJIAOKUANSONG,RUJINSHIXIANWENZHONGPIANJINDEHUOBIZHENGCE。YIFANGMIANDAOZHIJINNIANFANGQIDEZIJINLAIYUAN、DAOWEIZIJINDEZENGZHANGSUDUFANGHUAN,LINGYIFANGMIANSHOUJINDEJINRONGZHENGCEDUIGERENZHUFANGDIYADAIKUANYINGXIANGHENDA。

浙江风采网  “BUFENCHENGSHIYOUYUKUCUNYALIJIAODA,JIASHANGJINQISHICHANGYUQIBUMING,GOUFANGZHECHIGUANWANGTAIDU,YIXIEFANGQITUICHUCUXIAOYOUHUI,DAOZHIFANGJIAYOUSUOXIAJIANG。”GUOJIATONGJIJUCHENGSHISIGAOJITONGJISHILIUJIANWEIJIEDUCHENG。《RENMINRIBAOHAIWAIBAN》ZHICHU,YIXIEYENEIRENSHIRENWEI,SHICHANGYICHUXIANJIASUDIAOZHENGDEJIXIANG。

浙江风采网  ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANXUEHUIFUHUIZHANGCHENGUOQIANGBIAOSHI,FANGDICHANSHICHANGDEJIANGWENTAISHIKONGJIANGJINYIBUCHIXU。ZHUANJIAFENXIRENWEI,CONGJINJIGEYUELOUSHIDESHUJUKAN,LOUSHIJINRUXINYILUNDIAOZHENGDEQUSHIYIJINGDEDAOQUEREN。

  “JIANYIXIEDIFANGZHENGFUDEGUANYUANHEYIXIEKAIFASHANGPENGYOU,DUIWEILAIHUXIANGDAQI,HUXIANGZHUANGDAN。KAIFASHANGPENGYOUMENYOUZHEDIAN。”FANGDICHANDALAOPANSHIYIJINRIFAWEIBODAQULOUSHIDETUISHI,NANYANQIDUIFANGDICHANSHICHANGWEILAIFAZHANDEYINYOU。

  XIANGOUSONGBANGCHUANWENSIQI

  JU《MEIRIJINGJIXINWEN》6YUE18RIBAODAO,JINRI,GEDIPINPINCHUANCHUXIANGOUSONGBANGDECHUANWEN。JINNIANERJIDUYILAI,FUJIANSHENGJIUDUOCICHUANCHUXIANGOUFANGKAIDE“JIUSHI”XIAOXI。4YUE13RI,YIFENBEICHENGWEI“MINSHITIAO”DEXIAOXICHUANCHU,DANHENKUAIZAOGUANFANGFOUREN;5YUE29RI,SHAMENMOUJIGOUXIAOXICHENG,FUJIANSHENGNEIQITACHENGSHIHUKOUWUXUJIAONAYISHEBAOHUOGESHUI,TONGYANGYONGYOUZAISHAMENGOUFANGZIGE。

浙江风采网  SHAMENFANGDICHANJIAOYIQUANJIDENGJIZHONGXINGONGZUORENYUANBIAOSHI,MUQIANGOUFANGZHEKETONGGUO“BUSHUI”GOUFANGDETIAOJIANSHILIANGNIANNEILIANXUJIAONAYIBAO、SHEBAOMAN12GEYUE,QIEZUIDUOBUJIAOLIANGCI,MEICIBUJIAOBUNENGCHAOGUOLIANGGEYUE。YIXIEDANGDIJIGOUBIAOSHI,YANXIAFUZHOU、SHAMENYIKAISHICHUXIANLEDAZHECUXIAODEXINXI。5YUEZHONGXUN,FUZHOUCHUXIANLE“LINGSHOUFU”DAZHECUXIAO。JINRU6YUEYILAI,“MAIFANGSONGCHE”“GOUFANGLIJIAN15WAN”DENGCUXIAOXINXIYEFENFENTUICHU。

  6YUE10RI,SHANGHAIYIJUFANGDICHANYANJIUYUANFUYUANZHANGYANGHONGXUZAIQIWEIBOSHANGCHENG,CONGZHONGJIENEIBUHUOQUDEXIAOXI,JIRIQISHENYANGXIANGOUQUXIAO,BENDIRENHEWAIDIRENKEGOUDUOTAOZHUZHAI。

  SHENYANGYIWEIFANGDICHANRENSHI6YUE10RITIGONGDEYIFENMINGWEI《GUANYULUOSHISHENYANGSHIRENMINZHENGFUBANGONGTINGCUJINFANGDICHANSHICHANGPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHANYOUGUANWENTIDETONGZHI》DEWENJIANXIANSHI,“GOUFANGRENGOUMAIZHUFANGSHI,MAIFANGRENCHUMAIZHUFANGSHI,CHAXUNJIATINGWEIYIZHUFANGYOUFANGCHANJUFUZEHUOYOUGOUFANGREN、MAIFANGRENTIANXIE《JIATINGWEIYIZHUFANGSHENBAOBIAO》,SHENGMINGQIMAIMAIFANGWUWEIJIATINGWEIYIZHUZHAI。QIEWAIDIJUMINLAISHENGOUFANG,XIANGSHOUYUBENDIRENTONGDENGZHENGCE。”SHENYANGYIJIAFANGCHANJIGOUDEFUZERENBIAOSHI,SHENYANGQUXIAOXIANGOUMEIYOUZHENGGUIDEWENJIANCHUTAI,DANSHIZAIBANLIDEGUOCHENGZHONG,KEYIDIDIAOQUCHULI,“RUGUOYOUMAIDE,JIUKEYIBANLI。”

浙江风采网  DUICI,SHENYANGSHIFANGGUANJUBANGONGSHIXIANGGUANRENYUANBIAOSHI,BINGWEIJIEDAOTONGZHIQUXIAOXIANGOU,“WOMENHAIANZHAOYUANLAIDEXIANGOUFANGANZHIXING”。

浙江风采网  SUIRANSHENYANGGUANFANGFOURENXIANGOUQUXIAO,DANYENEIRENSHIRENWEI,ZHEIYICHUANWENBENLAIBEIZHENGSHIDEKENENGXINGJIUHENXIAO,HENKENENGYIDIFANGZHENGFUMORENDEFANGSHIFANGSONGXIANGOU。

浙江风采网  ZAOZAI5YUEDI,GUANGZHOUSHIFANGXIEMISHUZHANGXUGUOBIJIUHUYUZHENGFUDIAOZHENGXIANGOUZHENGCE。TAQIANGDIAO,JINNIANZHONGYANGDEDIAOKONGZHENGCETICHU“CHAYIHUA”,GUANGZHOUYINGGAIYOUMINGANDU、YOUXIUJUEDIZOUZAIQIANDUAN,ZAIJUBEITIAOJIANDENANSHA、CONGHUA、ZENGCHENGDENGZHOUBIANQUYU,FANGKAIXIANGOU。

  RENZHIQIANG:FANGJIABIFANDAN,GAIMAIJIUMAI

  ZHONGGUOSHEKEYUANCHENGSHIFAZHANYUHUANJINGYANJIUSUOYUANSUOZHANGNIUFENGRUIBIAOSHI,MUQIANDEQINGKUANGSHUYUFANGDICHANSHICHANGZHENGCEDEZHENGCHANGFANWEINEIDEZHANGLUO,CONGZONGTILAIKAN,FANGDICHANGONGQIUGUANXIMEIYOUFASHENGGENBENXINGDEBIANHUA,ZHONGGUODECHENGSHIHUAJINCHENGHAIWEIWANCHENG,ZHONGGUOCHENGSHIJIQUNDEGANGXINGXUQIUHEGAISHANXINGXUQIUHAIMEIYOUWANQUANJIEJUE,ZHISHISHOUDAOZHENGCEXINGDEXIANZHI,BIRUXIANGOU、XIANJIA、XIANDAIDENGDEYINGXIANG。TADUIXIABANNIANSHICHANGCHONGMANXINXIN,RENWEIFANGJIAYOUXIAXINGDEYALI,ZAIQUNIANGAOSUSHANGZHANGDEJICHUSHANGZENGSUHUIXIAJIANG,DANFANGJIADAFUDUXIAJIANGDEGAILVBIJIAOXIAO。

  ZHUJIANBUZHENGCEYANJIUZHONGXINYANJIUYUANWANGJUELINRENWEI,ZAIYANGXINGHEYINJIANHUIBIAOTAIZHICHISHOUTAOFANGXUQIUDEQINGKUANGXIA,GERENFANGDAIZHENGCEJIANGRIYIKUANSONG。FANGDICHANSHICHANGKETONGGUOZISHENDIAOZHENGLISHUNJIAGE,JIFAGOUFANGZHEDEGOUMAIYIYUAN,CONGERFUHESHICHANGXUQIU。

浙江风采网  YIXIEWAIGUOXUEZHEYEZHICHU,ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGBUHUIXIANGCIDAIWEIJIHOUDEMEIGUONEIYANGBENGPAN。XIANFENGTOUZIZAILUNDUNDEXINXINGSHICHANGZHAIWUJIJINGUANLIRENYELAN·XIDIKEFUSHUO:“LINGWOMENANXINDESHI,WOMENKANDAOZHONGGUOZHENGFUZHENGZAICAIQUXINGDONG——TAMENMEIYOUWUSHIZHENGZAIFASHENGDEQINGKUANG。ZHEIYESHIWEISHENMEHUIYOUZOUZOUTINGTINGDEZHENGCE——YIFANGMIAN,TAMENXIWANGLENGQUEZHEIGESHICHANG,LINGYIFANGMIAN,TAMENYOUBUXIWANGSHANGHAIDAOJINGJIZENGZHANG。”

浙江风采网  MEIGUOYINXINGMEILINZHENGQUANDEJINGJIXUEJIALUTINGQIANGDIAO,KENENGHUIYOUXIAOKAIFASHANGDALIANGPOCHAN,DANSHIBUHUICHUXIANYICI“DABENGKUI”。

浙江风采网  JINGJIZIXUNGONGSILONGZHOUJINGXUNDEJINGJIXUEJIAYAOLIQIANG(YIN)SHUO:“ZHEISHIYICIZHOUQIXINGDEDIAOZHENG,WOMENMEIYOUKANDAOJIJIANGBENGKUIDEJIXIANG。”

  DUILOUSHIQIANJINGGENGWEILEGUANDESHIXUJIAYINHERENZHIQIANG。HENGDAJITUANDONGSHIJUZHUXIXUJIAYINZAI3YUEFENJIUBIAOSHI,ZHIYAOQUANGUOGDPNENGWANCHENGZENGZHANG7.5%DEMUBIAO,YIXIANCHENGSHIFANGJIAKENDINGHUIYOU10%DESHANGZHANG,ERXIAN、SANXIANCHENGSHIZEYOU5%ZUOYOUDESHANGZHANG。

  HUAYUANDICHANDONGSHIZHANGRENZHIQIANGJINRIYEBIAOSHI,ZAIHONGGUANJINGJIXIAXINGDEDABEIJINGXIA,FANGDICHANXINGYEKENDINGHUIGENZHEXIAXING,MEIBIYAOYINWEIYISHIDEJIAOYILIANGXIAJIANGJIUDUIFANGDICHANJUEWANG。“WOBUGANYUCEMINGTIANDEFANGJIA,DANWOGANSHUOWEILAIKENDINGHUIYOUYIGEFANDAN,YOUNENGLIHUOYOUXUQIUDEGOUFANGZHEGAIMAIJIUMAI,BUBITIAOSHIJIAN。”

  RENMINRIBAOHAIWAIBAN:FANGJIAZHENGCHANGDIAOZHENG,CHANGKONGZHEBIEYOUYONGXIN

  6YUE23RI,《RENMINRIBAOHAIWAIBAN》FABIAO“FANGJIAZHENGCHANGDIAOZHENGWEIHELIANZAOCHANGKONG”YIWEN,CHIZECHANGKONGZHE“HAIPAYINGXIANGZISHENLIYI”,YU“ZHIZAOKONGHUANGBIPOJIUSHI”。WENZHANGCHENG,NIANCHUZHIJIN,GEDIFANGDICHANSHICHANGCHENGJIAOLIANGCHIXUDIMI,YISHIJIAN,“BENGPANLUN”、“GUAIDIANLUN”、“YINXINGPOCHANLUN”DENGBEIGUANLUNDIAOSHENXIAOCHENSHANG。ZHUANJIAZHICHU,MUQIANLOUSHIYIJINRUZHENGCHANGDIAOZHENGQI,YAOJINGTIBIEYOUYONGXINZHECHANGKONGLOUSHIDEZHENZHENGMUDE——RAOLUANSHICHANG,WUDAOZHENGCE,MANZUSILI。

  WENZHANGZHICHU,YIXIEYENEIDALAOAITANJINNIAN“XINGSHIBUMIAO”,PANDUAN“FANGDICHANDAOLEXIAJIANGDAZHOUQIJIEDUAN”;GUOWAIJINRONGJIGOUYEJIARUCHANGKONGXINGLIE,RURUIYINZHONGGUOQUSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAWANGTAOBIAOSHI,ZHONGGUOLOUSHIYIJINGJIEJINZHUANZHEDIAN。KANKONGLOUSHIDEYANLUNFANGDALESHICHANGJIAOLV,“YINXINGJIANGYINFANGDICHANBENGKUIERPOCHAN”、“DIFANGZHENGFUMAIBUCHUTUDI,CAIZHENGNANYIWEIJI”DENGDANXINJINYIBUMANYAN,HUYUZHENGFUSONGBANGXIANGOUZHENGCEJIUSHIDESHENGYINYUELAIYUEQIANGLIE。

  DUICI,WENZHANGQIANGDIAO,CENGZHANGQIGAOGEMENGJINDEZHONGGUOFANGJIAMUQIANZHISHIFANGHUANLESHANGZHANGDEJIAOBUERYI。WENZHANGCHENG,JINGGUODUONIANDIAOKONGHESHICHANGDEBIANHUAFAZHAN,MUQIANZHONGGUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGZHENGZAIJINRUDIAOZHENGQI。“WOMENDEYANJIURENWEI,JINNIANLOUSHIYOUYUZHONGZHONGYUANYINZHUDINGSHIYIGEDIAOZHENGZHINIAN,DANSHIRUGUOYOUCIDUANDINGLOUSHIJIJIANGFASHENGBENGPAN,CHUXIANDUANYASHIXIADIE,ZHEIYANGDEJIELUNYANGUOQISHI。”ZHUJIANBUZHENGCEYANJIUZHONGXINZHURENQINHONGRENWEI。

  WEIHELOUSHIJINRUZHENGCHANGDEDIAOZHENGQIQUEBEIYIXIERENGAODIAOCHANGKONG?GAIWENRENWEI,BUPAICHULIYIQUNTIJIESHICHANGDIAOZHENGDAZUOWENZHANG,YIDADAORAOLUANSHICHANG、GAIBIANZHENGCE、MANZUSILIDEMUDE。“KANKONGZHEKUADALOUSHIXIAXINGQUSHIHEHOUGUO,YANWAIZHIYICUICUZHENGFUGANJINSONGBANGXIANGOUZHENGCE,FANGKUANXINDAI,CAIQUJIUSHIXINGDONG,ZHEIYANG,KAIFASHANGMENKEYIJIXUXIANGSHOUGAOFANGJIADEHONGLI,YANXUMUQIANYIDUANDEZIJINLIAN。ERDUNFANGZHEMENYENENGJIXUZUOYONGCAIFUZENGZHANG。”

浙江风采网  ZHUANJIARENWEI,WEILAICHENGZHENHUADEFAZHAN,WENDINGDEJINGJIZENGZHANGYIJIXIAOFEIJIEGOUDESHENGJI,JIANGWEIFANGDICHANSHICHANGFAZHANTIGONGKONGJIAN。FANGDICHANSHICHANGWEILAIDEFAZHANJIANGCONGGUOQUDANCHUNZHUZHONGSHULIANGDEZENGZHANG,ZHUANXIANGGENGJIAZHUZHONGZHILIANGDETISHENG。

【编辑:于航】

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