1楼市崩盘论、拐点论、调整论,孰是孰非?
ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”
ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”
浙江风采网ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”
JINNIANZHONGGUOLOUSHIYOUDIANLENG,BUJINSHANGPINFANGCHENGJIAOLIANGCHIXUZOUDI,FANGJIAHUANBIXIADIEDECHENGSHIYEYUELAIYUEDUO。ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGDEZOUSHICHENGWEIGEFANGGUANZHUDEJIAODIAN,YOURENJINGHU“GUAIDIAN”CHUXIAN,YOURENRENWEIZHEISHIZHENGCHANGDEDIAOZHENG,YEYOURENJIANXINFANGJIAHAIHUIZHANG。
浙江风采网 ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOU“LIANGJIAQIDIE”,KUCUN“YALISHANDA”
浙江风采网 GUOJIATONGJIJUJINRIGONGBUDE《2014NIAN5YUEFEN70GEDAZHONGCHENGSHIZHUZHAIXIAOSHOUJIAGEBIANDONGQINGKUANG》XIANSHI,JINNIAN5YUEFEN,FANGJIAHUANBISHANGZHANGDECHENGSHIMINGXIANJIANSHAO,BUFENCHENGSHIFANGJIAHUANBIXIAOFUXIAJIANG。XINJIANSHANGPINZHUZHAI(BUHANBAOZHANGXINGZHUFANG)YUSHANGYUEXIANGBI,70GEDAZHONGCHENGSHIZHONG,JIAGEXIAJIANGDECHENGSHIYOU35GE(ZHENGTIPINGJUNJIANGFUWEI0.15%,WEIJIN24GEYUEYILAIDEXINDI,YESHICIQIJIANSHOUCICHUXIANFUZENGZHANG),CHIPINGDECHENGSHIYOU20GE,SHANGZHANGDECHENGSHIYOU15GE;ERSHOUZHUZHAIJIAGEYUSHANGYUEXIANGBI,70GEDAZHONGCHENGSHIZHONG,JIAGEXIAJIANGDECHENGSHIYOU35GE,CHIPINGDECHENGSHIYOU16GE,SHANGZHANGDECHENGSHIYOU19GE。
浙江风采网 ZAIFANGJIAXIANGLAIJIANTINGDESIGEYIXIANCHENGSHIZHONG,SHANGHAI、SHENZHENDEXINFANGJIAGEYECHUXIANHUANBIXIADIE,GUANGZHOUCHIPING,ZHIYOUBEIJINGWEIZHANG0.2%。JUTONGJI,5YUE1RIZHI3RI,BEIJINGSHANGPINZHUZHAIGONGCHENGJIAOTONGBIZHOUJIANG78.9%,BINGCHUANGXIAZI2008NIANSHIXING“WUYI”XIAOZHANGJIAYILAIDEZUIDIZHI。SHENZHENTONGQISHANGPINFANGCHENGJIAOTONGBIDIEFUCHAOGUOLIUCHENG。
浙江风采网 ZHONGXINWANGCHENG,5 YUEFENSHICHANGCHENGJIAOBINGMEIYOUYULIAOZHONGDEDAFUFANDAN,FANGQIPAOLIANGDEXIWANGLUOKONG,KUCUNMIANLIN“YALISHANDA”DEJIONGJING。
浙江风采网 ZHUANJIA:LOUSHIJINRUXINYILUNDIAOZHENGQI
《ZHONGGUOZHENGQUANBAO》CHENG,ZAIBINGWUZHENGCEMINGXIANYAZHIDEBEIJINGXIA,LOUSHIZAICHUANTONGREXIAOQIQUECHUXIAN“LIANGJIAQIDIE”DEJUMIAN,YINCIHENDUOSHICHANGRENSHIJIANGCIPANDUANWEI“GUAIDIAN”,RENWEIZAIDANGQIANSHICHANGZHENGTIGONGXUPINGHENGDEQINGKUANGXIA,JIAOYILIANGDEDIBUKENENGWEICHIJIAOZHANGSHIJIAN,FANGJIADEDIAOZHENGZHOUQIYEJIANGLAZHANG。
BEIJINGDAXUEFANGDICHANYANJIUSUOSUOZHANGCHENGUOQIANGZAIJIESHOUZHONGXINWANGJIZHECAIFANGSHIBIAOSHI,2014NIAN1-5YUEFENSHUJUJIZHONGCHENGXIAN“LIANGJIAQIDIE”TAISHI,ZHEIJIANGJINYIBUJIAJUSHICHANGXIATANYUQI,DUANQINEILOUSHIZHEIZHONGJIXUXIACHENDETAISHIBUHUIZHUANBIAN。BENCIFANGDICHANSHICHANGHANLIUSHIYOUYUSHICHANGZISHENMAODUNBAOFA,BAOKUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGZISHENDEGONGYINGMAODUN、SHICHANGNEIBUJIEGOUXINGWENTI,HUOZHESHIYOUYUGUOQUYIDUANSHIJIANFANGJIASHANGZHANGGUOMENGGUOKUAIDENG。
ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANXIEHUIMISHUZHANGGUYUNCHANGFENXICHENG,FANGDICHAN“LIANGJIAQIDIE”YOUSANGEYUANYIN:DIYI,FANGDICHANSHICHANGBENSHENCHUZAIXIAXINGQUJIAN,FANGDICHANSHICHANGHEHONGGUANJINGJIYIYANGZENGSUFANGHUAN。DIER,HEQUNIANFANGDICHANDEKUAISUZENGZHANGJISHUGAOYOUHENDAGUANXI,QUNIANXIAOSHOUMIANJI、XIAOSHOUETONGBIZENGZHANGHENKUAI,QUNIANTOUZHIDEXIAOSHOUDAOZHIJISHUZENGJIA,ZHEIZAIHENDACHENGDUYINGXIANGJINNIANDESHICHANGBIAOXIAN。DISAN,FANGDAIZHENGCERIYISHOUJIN,GUOQUHUOBIZHENGCEYIZHIBIJIAOKUANSONG,RUJINSHIXIANWENZHONGPIANJINDEHUOBIZHENGCE。YIFANGMIANDAOZHIJINNIANFANGQIDEZIJINLAIYUAN、DAOWEIZIJINDEZENGZHANGSUDUFANGHUAN,LINGYIFANGMIANSHOUJINDEJINRONGZHENGCEDUIGERENZHUFANGDIYADAIKUANYINGXIANGHENDA。
浙江风采网 “BUFENCHENGSHIYOUYUKUCUNYALIJIAODA,JIASHANGJINQISHICHANGYUQIBUMING,GOUFANGZHECHIGUANWANGTAIDU,YIXIEFANGQITUICHUCUXIAOYOUHUI,DAOZHIFANGJIAYOUSUOXIAJIANG。”GUOJIATONGJIJUCHENGSHISIGAOJITONGJISHILIUJIANWEIJIEDUCHENG。《RENMINRIBAOHAIWAIBAN》ZHICHU,YIXIEYENEIRENSHIRENWEI,SHICHANGYICHUXIANJIASUDIAOZHENGDEJIXIANG。
浙江风采网 ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANXUEHUIFUHUIZHANGCHENGUOQIANGBIAOSHI,FANGDICHANSHICHANGDEJIANGWENTAISHIKONGJIANGJINYIBUCHIXU。ZHUANJIAFENXIRENWEI,CONGJINJIGEYUELOUSHIDESHUJUKAN,LOUSHIJINRUXINYILUNDIAOZHENGDEQUSHIYIJINGDEDAOQUEREN。
“JIANYIXIEDIFANGZHENGFUDEGUANYUANHEYIXIEKAIFASHANGPENGYOU,DUIWEILAIHUXIANGDAQI,HUXIANGZHUANGDAN。KAIFASHANGPENGYOUMENYOUZHEDIAN。”FANGDICHANDALAOPANSHIYIJINRIFAWEIBODAQULOUSHIDETUISHI,NANYANQIDUIFANGDICHANSHICHANGWEILAIFAZHANDEYINYOU。
XIANGOUSONGBANGCHUANWENSIQI
JU《MEIRIJINGJIXINWEN》6YUE18RIBAODAO,JINRI,GEDIPINPINCHUANCHUXIANGOUSONGBANGDECHUANWEN。JINNIANERJIDUYILAI,FUJIANSHENGJIUDUOCICHUANCHUXIANGOUFANGKAIDE“JIUSHI”XIAOXI。4YUE13RI,YIFENBEICHENGWEI“MINSHITIAO”DEXIAOXICHUANCHU,DANHENKUAIZAOGUANFANGFOUREN;5YUE29RI,SHAMENMOUJIGOUXIAOXICHENG,FUJIANSHENGNEIQITACHENGSHIHUKOUWUXUJIAONAYISHEBAOHUOGESHUI,TONGYANGYONGYOUZAISHAMENGOUFANGZIGE。
浙江风采网 SHAMENFANGDICHANJIAOYIQUANJIDENGJIZHONGXINGONGZUORENYUANBIAOSHI,MUQIANGOUFANGZHEKETONGGUO“BUSHUI”GOUFANGDETIAOJIANSHILIANGNIANNEILIANXUJIAONAYIBAO、SHEBAOMAN12GEYUE,QIEZUIDUOBUJIAOLIANGCI,MEICIBUJIAOBUNENGCHAOGUOLIANGGEYUE。YIXIEDANGDIJIGOUBIAOSHI,YANXIAFUZHOU、SHAMENYIKAISHICHUXIANLEDAZHECUXIAODEXINXI。5YUEZHONGXUN,FUZHOUCHUXIANLE“LINGSHOUFU”DAZHECUXIAO。JINRU6YUEYILAI,“MAIFANGSONGCHE”“GOUFANGLIJIAN15WAN”DENGCUXIAOXINXIYEFENFENTUICHU。
6YUE10RI,SHANGHAIYIJUFANGDICHANYANJIUYUANFUYUANZHANGYANGHONGXUZAIQIWEIBOSHANGCHENG,CONGZHONGJIENEIBUHUOQUDEXIAOXI,JIRIQISHENYANGXIANGOUQUXIAO,BENDIRENHEWAIDIRENKEGOUDUOTAOZHUZHAI。
SHENYANGYIWEIFANGDICHANRENSHI6YUE10RITIGONGDEYIFENMINGWEI《GUANYULUOSHISHENYANGSHIRENMINZHENGFUBANGONGTINGCUJINFANGDICHANSHICHANGPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHANYOUGUANWENTIDETONGZHI》DEWENJIANXIANSHI,“GOUFANGRENGOUMAIZHUFANGSHI,MAIFANGRENCHUMAIZHUFANGSHI,CHAXUNJIATINGWEIYIZHUFANGYOUFANGCHANJUFUZEHUOYOUGOUFANGREN、MAIFANGRENTIANXIE《JIATINGWEIYIZHUFANGSHENBAOBIAO》,SHENGMINGQIMAIMAIFANGWUWEIJIATINGWEIYIZHUZHAI。QIEWAIDIJUMINLAISHENGOUFANG,XIANGSHOUYUBENDIRENTONGDENGZHENGCE。”SHENYANGYIJIAFANGCHANJIGOUDEFUZERENBIAOSHI,SHENYANGQUXIAOXIANGOUMEIYOUZHENGGUIDEWENJIANCHUTAI,DANSHIZAIBANLIDEGUOCHENGZHONG,KEYIDIDIAOQUCHULI,“RUGUOYOUMAIDE,JIUKEYIBANLI。”
浙江风采网 DUICI,SHENYANGSHIFANGGUANJUBANGONGSHIXIANGGUANRENYUANBIAOSHI,BINGWEIJIEDAOTONGZHIQUXIAOXIANGOU,“WOMENHAIANZHAOYUANLAIDEXIANGOUFANGANZHIXING”。
浙江风采网 SUIRANSHENYANGGUANFANGFOURENXIANGOUQUXIAO,DANYENEIRENSHIRENWEI,ZHEIYICHUANWENBENLAIBEIZHENGSHIDEKENENGXINGJIUHENXIAO,HENKENENGYIDIFANGZHENGFUMORENDEFANGSHIFANGSONGXIANGOU。
浙江风采网 ZAOZAI5YUEDI,GUANGZHOUSHIFANGXIEMISHUZHANGXUGUOBIJIUHUYUZHENGFUDIAOZHENGXIANGOUZHENGCE。TAQIANGDIAO,JINNIANZHONGYANGDEDIAOKONGZHENGCETICHU“CHAYIHUA”,GUANGZHOUYINGGAIYOUMINGANDU、YOUXIUJUEDIZOUZAIQIANDUAN,ZAIJUBEITIAOJIANDENANSHA、CONGHUA、ZENGCHENGDENGZHOUBIANQUYU,FANGKAIXIANGOU。
RENZHIQIANG:FANGJIABIFANDAN,GAIMAIJIUMAI
ZHONGGUOSHEKEYUANCHENGSHIFAZHANYUHUANJINGYANJIUSUOYUANSUOZHANGNIUFENGRUIBIAOSHI,MUQIANDEQINGKUANGSHUYUFANGDICHANSHICHANGZHENGCEDEZHENGCHANGFANWEINEIDEZHANGLUO,CONGZONGTILAIKAN,FANGDICHANGONGQIUGUANXIMEIYOUFASHENGGENBENXINGDEBIANHUA,ZHONGGUODECHENGSHIHUAJINCHENGHAIWEIWANCHENG,ZHONGGUOCHENGSHIJIQUNDEGANGXINGXUQIUHEGAISHANXINGXUQIUHAIMEIYOUWANQUANJIEJUE,ZHISHISHOUDAOZHENGCEXINGDEXIANZHI,BIRUXIANGOU、XIANJIA、XIANDAIDENGDEYINGXIANG。TADUIXIABANNIANSHICHANGCHONGMANXINXIN,RENWEIFANGJIAYOUXIAXINGDEYALI,ZAIQUNIANGAOSUSHANGZHANGDEJICHUSHANGZENGSUHUIXIAJIANG,DANFANGJIADAFUDUXIAJIANGDEGAILVBIJIAOXIAO。
ZHUJIANBUZHENGCEYANJIUZHONGXINYANJIUYUANWANGJUELINRENWEI,ZAIYANGXINGHEYINJIANHUIBIAOTAIZHICHISHOUTAOFANGXUQIUDEQINGKUANGXIA,GERENFANGDAIZHENGCEJIANGRIYIKUANSONG。FANGDICHANSHICHANGKETONGGUOZISHENDIAOZHENGLISHUNJIAGE,JIFAGOUFANGZHEDEGOUMAIYIYUAN,CONGERFUHESHICHANGXUQIU。
浙江风采网 YIXIEWAIGUOXUEZHEYEZHICHU,ZHONGGUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGBUHUIXIANGCIDAIWEIJIHOUDEMEIGUONEIYANGBENGPAN。XIANFENGTOUZIZAILUNDUNDEXINXINGSHICHANGZHAIWUJIJINGUANLIRENYELAN·XIDIKEFUSHUO:“LINGWOMENANXINDESHI,WOMENKANDAOZHONGGUOZHENGFUZHENGZAICAIQUXINGDONG——TAMENMEIYOUWUSHIZHENGZAIFASHENGDEQINGKUANG。ZHEIYESHIWEISHENMEHUIYOUZOUZOUTINGTINGDEZHENGCE——YIFANGMIAN,TAMENXIWANGLENGQUEZHEIGESHICHANG,LINGYIFANGMIAN,TAMENYOUBUXIWANGSHANGHAIDAOJINGJIZENGZHANG。”
浙江风采网 MEIGUOYINXINGMEILINZHENGQUANDEJINGJIXUEJIALUTINGQIANGDIAO,KENENGHUIYOUXIAOKAIFASHANGDALIANGPOCHAN,DANSHIBUHUICHUXIANYICI“DABENGKUI”。
浙江风采网 JINGJIZIXUNGONGSILONGZHOUJINGXUNDEJINGJIXUEJIAYAOLIQIANG(YIN)SHUO:“ZHEISHIYICIZHOUQIXINGDEDIAOZHENG,WOMENMEIYOUKANDAOJIJIANGBENGKUIDEJIXIANG。”
DUILOUSHIQIANJINGGENGWEILEGUANDESHIXUJIAYINHERENZHIQIANG。HENGDAJITUANDONGSHIJUZHUXIXUJIAYINZAI3YUEFENJIUBIAOSHI,ZHIYAOQUANGUOGDPNENGWANCHENGZENGZHANG7.5%DEMUBIAO,YIXIANCHENGSHIFANGJIAKENDINGHUIYOU10%DESHANGZHANG,ERXIAN、SANXIANCHENGSHIZEYOU5%ZUOYOUDESHANGZHANG。
HUAYUANDICHANDONGSHIZHANGRENZHIQIANGJINRIYEBIAOSHI,ZAIHONGGUANJINGJIXIAXINGDEDABEIJINGXIA,FANGDICHANXINGYEKENDINGHUIGENZHEXIAXING,MEIBIYAOYINWEIYISHIDEJIAOYILIANGXIAJIANGJIUDUIFANGDICHANJUEWANG。“WOBUGANYUCEMINGTIANDEFANGJIA,DANWOGANSHUOWEILAIKENDINGHUIYOUYIGEFANDAN,YOUNENGLIHUOYOUXUQIUDEGOUFANGZHEGAIMAIJIUMAI,BUBITIAOSHIJIAN。”
RENMINRIBAOHAIWAIBAN:FANGJIAZHENGCHANGDIAOZHENG,CHANGKONGZHEBIEYOUYONGXIN
6YUE23RI,《RENMINRIBAOHAIWAIBAN》FABIAO“FANGJIAZHENGCHANGDIAOZHENGWEIHELIANZAOCHANGKONG”YIWEN,CHIZECHANGKONGZHE“HAIPAYINGXIANGZISHENLIYI”,YU“ZHIZAOKONGHUANGBIPOJIUSHI”。WENZHANGCHENG,NIANCHUZHIJIN,GEDIFANGDICHANSHICHANGCHENGJIAOLIANGCHIXUDIMI,YISHIJIAN,“BENGPANLUN”、“GUAIDIANLUN”、“YINXINGPOCHANLUN”DENGBEIGUANLUNDIAOSHENXIAOCHENSHANG。ZHUANJIAZHICHU,MUQIANLOUSHIYIJINRUZHENGCHANGDIAOZHENGQI,YAOJINGTIBIEYOUYONGXINZHECHANGKONGLOUSHIDEZHENZHENGMUDE——RAOLUANSHICHANG,WUDAOZHENGCE,MANZUSILI。
WENZHANGZHICHU,YIXIEYENEIDALAOAITANJINNIAN“XINGSHIBUMIAO”,PANDUAN“FANGDICHANDAOLEXIAJIANGDAZHOUQIJIEDUAN”;GUOWAIJINRONGJIGOUYEJIARUCHANGKONGXINGLIE,RURUIYINZHONGGUOQUSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAWANGTAOBIAOSHI,ZHONGGUOLOUSHIYIJINGJIEJINZHUANZHEDIAN。KANKONGLOUSHIDEYANLUNFANGDALESHICHANGJIAOLV,“YINXINGJIANGYINFANGDICHANBENGKUIERPOCHAN”、“DIFANGZHENGFUMAIBUCHUTUDI,CAIZHENGNANYIWEIJI”DENGDANXINJINYIBUMANYAN,HUYUZHENGFUSONGBANGXIANGOUZHENGCEJIUSHIDESHENGYINYUELAIYUEQIANGLIE。
DUICI,WENZHANGQIANGDIAO,CENGZHANGQIGAOGEMENGJINDEZHONGGUOFANGJIAMUQIANZHISHIFANGHUANLESHANGZHANGDEJIAOBUERYI。WENZHANGCHENG,JINGGUODUONIANDIAOKONGHESHICHANGDEBIANHUAFAZHAN,MUQIANZHONGGUOFANGDICHANSHICHANGZHENGZAIJINRUDIAOZHENGQI。“WOMENDEYANJIURENWEI,JINNIANLOUSHIYOUYUZHONGZHONGYUANYINZHUDINGSHIYIGEDIAOZHENGZHINIAN,DANSHIRUGUOYOUCIDUANDINGLOUSHIJIJIANGFASHENGBENGPAN,CHUXIANDUANYASHIXIADIE,ZHEIYANGDEJIELUNYANGUOQISHI。”ZHUJIANBUZHENGCEYANJIUZHONGXINZHURENQINHONGRENWEI。
WEIHELOUSHIJINRUZHENGCHANGDEDIAOZHENGQIQUEBEIYIXIERENGAODIAOCHANGKONG?GAIWENRENWEI,BUPAICHULIYIQUNTIJIESHICHANGDIAOZHENGDAZUOWENZHANG,YIDADAORAOLUANSHICHANG、GAIBIANZHENGCE、MANZUSILIDEMUDE。“KANKONGZHEKUADALOUSHIXIAXINGQUSHIHEHOUGUO,YANWAIZHIYICUICUZHENGFUGANJINSONGBANGXIANGOUZHENGCE,FANGKUANXINDAI,CAIQUJIUSHIXINGDONG,ZHEIYANG,KAIFASHANGMENKEYIJIXUXIANGSHOUGAOFANGJIADEHONGLI,YANXUMUQIANYIDUANDEZIJINLIAN。ERDUNFANGZHEMENYENENGJIXUZUOYONGCAIFUZENGZHANG。”
浙江风采网 ZHUANJIARENWEI,WEILAICHENGZHENHUADEFAZHAN,WENDINGDEJINGJIZENGZHANGYIJIXIAOFEIJIEGOUDESHENGJI,JIANGWEIFANGDICHANSHICHANGFAZHANTIGONGKONGJIAN。FANGDICHANSHICHANGWEILAIDEFAZHANJIANGCONGGUOQUDANCHUNZHUZHONGSHULIANGDEZENGZHANG,ZHUANXIANGGENGJIAZHUZHONGZHILIANGDETISHENG。